Solar maximum, the peak of the 13-month smoothed sunspot number curve, is a significant event in the 11-year solar cycle. The solar cycle follows a pattern of increasing and decreasing activity, with solar maximum being a period of heightened solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Solar maximum is not always easy to pinpoint, as it may not align with the month of the highest sunspot count. For example, in Solar Cycle 24, the highest monthly sunspot number was recorded in February 2014, but the official solar maximum occurred in June 2014.
In the current Solar Cycle 25, May and June of 2024 saw the highest monthly sunspot counts since September 2022. While these months may have had the highest sunspot numbers, the 13-month smoothed value, which defines solar maximum, may continue to rise for a few more months. The latest modeling efforts from NOAA predict a solar maximum between July 2024 and January 2025, but it may take some time beyond this timespan to confirm when solar maximum actually occurred.
The unpredictability of solar activity makes it challenging to determine the exact timing of solar maximum. Even after a suspected peak, sunspot numbers can fluctuate, leading to a double peak in activity or a sustained decline before the true solar maximum is identified. This trend analysis relies on the 13-month smoothed sunspot values, adding a 6-month delay before the data point for a given month is available.
With an expected solar maximum between July 2024 and January 2025, it may take until the end of 2025 or even 2026 to confidently state when solar maximum occurred. Solar physicist Dr. Ryan French, who is engaged in cutting-edge solar physics research, emphasizes the complexities of understanding and predicting solar activity. As we await the confirmation of solar maximum, it is essential to stay informed and engaged with the latest developments in solar science.
